A New Generation of Pitching
9:35 AM
Dexter-Sports Inbox
At 44, Randy Johnson is five wins away from that special plateau that all pitchers dream of getting to. The lefty, who is currently searching for the right home, will probably be the last pitcher to reach 300 wins for a very long time. 2009 starts the era of a new generation of pitching, led by the likes of Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia. Do any of the listed above really have a shot at three hundred wins? Lets take a closer look.
Johan Santana- at age 29, Santana already has put together an impressive 109-59 record. Since 2004, the Mets ace hasn't won less than 15 games. So lets assume he is able to put together at least 15 wins for the next four seasons. That puts him roughly at 169 games won at the age of 33. At 33, it is possible that Santana's ability deterioates. Let us say he wins ten games a year, without any barring injuries for another six years. At 39, Santana would have 229 wins. I think it is safe to say that I am being pretty skimpy here. Say Santana averages 14 wins throughout those later six years, he would be over the 250 mark. So though it seems highly possible for Johan to reach the 300 plateau, it seems that the numbers are more against him. Surprisingly though, he has the best chance of the established young starters in the league
Brandon Webb- At the same age as Santana, Webb only has 89 wins in his young career. A late bloomer, it seems nearly impossible for 300. Ten years of averaging 20 wins wouldn't even bloster him over the 300 mark.
CC Sabathia- At 27, Sabathia has already accumulated more wins (117) that Santana, at near the same rate. Though Sabathia is younger, he armed has been taxed more than the mets lefty. Sabathia has already thrown 26 complete games in 1659 innings pitched. Santana on the other hand, has only gone the distance 9 times in 1543 innings pitched. So if Sabathia's arm doesn't fall off by the age of 39, then he could be in the hunt for 300. It will be really tough though.
Scott Kazmir- Some believe that this kid has the best chance of making it to 300, but at the ripe age of 25 (age going into next season) anything is a possibility. Sitting at 47 wins, It will take a big jump to get the lefty a push in the right direction. Let's say he gets a 20 win season, an 18 game season, and averages 14 a year for the next ten seasons. At 35, again, barring no injury, Kazmir would be at a solid 224 wins. If he pitches until he is forty years old, and averages 10 wins a season, that would put him at 274. If he were to average 14 wins those last five seasons, he would be at 294. To me, it seems that Kazmir does have one of the best chances to get to the 300 win plateau.
Tim Lincecum- Despite all of the hype and success that Lincecum has, the odds are stacked up against him. His delivery is one that could cause injury in the future. His small frame is also an issue that could cause breakdown going into his career. At the same age as Kazmir, Linceum has only totaled 25 wins. Granted, it has only been two seasons, and his win rate seems to be a solid fixture, I don't think Lincecum can put that solid run together, especially with the stagnant offense in San Fransisco. The one and only Bill James projects 17 wins next season.
Andy Pettite- At 36, Pettite is still 85 wins away from the 300 club. Is it doable? You betcha! If his arm can last until the age of 42, and he averages 14 wins from now until then, he would be at 84 wins. The only question is if. I think that 14 wins is a safe total. He hasn't been below 14 in a full season since 2002.
At 44, Randy Johnson is five wins away from that special plateau that all pitchers dream of getting to. The lefty, who is currently searching for the right home, will probably be the last pitcher to reach 300 wins for a very long time. 2009 starts the era of a new generation of pitching, led by the likes of Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia. Do any of the listed above really have a shot at three hundred wins? Lets take a closer look.
Johan Santana- at age 29, Santana already has put together an impressive 109-59 record. Since 2004, the Mets ace hasn't won less than 15 games. So lets assume he is able to put together at least 15 wins for the next four seasons. That puts him roughly at 169 games won at the age of 33. At 33, it is possible that Santana's ability deterioates. Let us say he wins ten games a year, without any barring injuries for another six years. At 39, Santana would have 229 wins. I think it is safe to say that I am being pretty skimpy here. Say Santana averages 14 wins throughout those later six years, he would be over the 250 mark. So though it seems highly possible for Johan to reach the 300 plateau, it seems that the numbers are more against him. Surprisingly though, he has the best chance of the established young starters in the league
Brandon Webb- At the same age as Santana, Webb only has 89 wins in his young career. A late bloomer, it seems nearly impossible for 300. Ten years of averaging 20 wins wouldn't even bloster him over the 300 mark.
CC Sabathia- At 27, Sabathia has already accumulated more wins (117) that Santana, at near the same rate. Though Sabathia is younger, he armed has been taxed more than the mets lefty. Sabathia has already thrown 26 complete games in 1659 innings pitched. Santana on the other hand, has only gone the distance 9 times in 1543 innings pitched. So if Sabathia's arm doesn't fall off by the age of 39, then he could be in the hunt for 300. It will be really tough though.
Scott Kazmir- Some believe that this kid has the best chance of making it to 300, but at the ripe age of 25 (age going into next season) anything is a possibility. Sitting at 47 wins, It will take a big jump to get the lefty a push in the right direction. Let's say he gets a 20 win season, an 18 game season, and averages 14 a year for the next ten seasons. At 35, again, barring no injury, Kazmir would be at a solid 224 wins. If he pitches until he is forty years old, and averages 10 wins a season, that would put him at 274. If he were to average 14 wins those last five seasons, he would be at 294. To me, it seems that Kazmir does have one of the best chances to get to the 300 win plateau.
Tim Lincecum- Despite all of the hype and success that Lincecum has, the odds are stacked up against him. His delivery is one that could cause injury in the future. His small frame is also an issue that could cause breakdown going into his career. At the same age as Kazmir, Linceum has only totaled 25 wins. Granted, it has only been two seasons, and his win rate seems to be a solid fixture, I don't think Lincecum can put that solid run together, especially with the stagnant offense in San Fransisco. The one and only Bill James projects 17 wins next season.
Andy Pettite- At 36, Pettite is still 85 wins away from the 300 club. Is it doable? You betcha! If his arm can last until the age of 42, and he averages 14 wins from now until then, he would be at 84 wins. The only question is if. I think that 14 wins is a safe total. He hasn't been below 14 in a full season since 2002.
