The Best of 2008

By Dex
-Dexter Sports
11:07 PM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

Its been a long while since we have updated, but on this long New Year's eve, I have a feeling of accomplishment for 2008. Let's take a look at the best from the year that is soon to be behind us.

  • Dexter-Sports Draft Coverage- I had a blast doing this. It is really the first time I got so involved in a draft for major league baseball. I have to say my predictions were not too far off.
Overall, I just want to thank everyone for stopping by and enjoying my work. In the new year, I hope to get back on track with this Blog. Remember though, You can catch my content at:

www.scoutingthesports.com

www.fantasycpr.com

www.sidelionreport.com

www.motorcitybengals.com
 

A New Generation of Pitching

Category: By Dex
9:35 AM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

At 44, Randy Johnson is five wins away from that special plateau that all pitchers dream of getting to. The lefty, who is currently searching for the right home, will probably be the last pitcher to reach 300 wins for a very long time. 2009 starts the era of a new generation of pitching, led by the likes of Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum and CC Sabathia. Do any of the listed above really have a shot at three hundred wins? Lets take a closer look.

Johan Santana- at age 29, Santana already has put together an impressive 109-59 record. Since 2004, the Mets ace hasn't won less than 15 games. So lets assume he is able to put together at least 15 wins for the next four seasons. That puts him roughly at 169 games won at the age of 33. At 33, it is possible that Santana's ability deterioates. Let us say he wins ten games a year, without any barring injuries for another six years. At 39, Santana would have 229 wins. I think it is safe to say that I am being pretty skimpy here. Say Santana averages 14 wins throughout those later six years, he would be over the 250 mark. So though it seems highly possible for Johan to reach the 300 plateau, it seems that the numbers are more against him. Surprisingly though, he has the best chance of the established young starters in the league

Brandon Webb- At the same age as Santana, Webb only has 89 wins in his young career. A late bloomer, it seems nearly impossible for 300. Ten years of averaging 20 wins wouldn't even bloster him over the 300 mark.

CC Sabathia- At 27, Sabathia has already accumulated more wins (117) that Santana, at near the same rate. Though Sabathia is younger, he armed has been taxed more than the mets lefty. Sabathia has already thrown 26 complete games in 1659 innings pitched. Santana on the other hand, has only gone the distance 9 times in 1543 innings pitched. So if Sabathia's arm doesn't fall off by the age of 39, then he could be in the hunt for 300. It will be really tough though.

Scott Kazmir- Some believe that this kid has the best chance of making it to 300, but at the ripe age of 25 (age going into next season) anything is a possibility. Sitting at 47 wins, It will take a big jump to get the lefty a push in the right direction. Let's say he gets a 20 win season, an 18 game season, and averages 14 a year for the next ten seasons. At 35, again, barring no injury, Kazmir would be at a solid 224 wins. If he pitches until he is forty years old, and averages 10 wins a season, that would put him at 274. If he were to average 14 wins those last five seasons, he would be at 294. To me, it seems that Kazmir does have one of the best chances to get to the 300 win plateau.

Tim Lincecum- Despite all of the hype and success that Lincecum has, the odds are stacked up against him. His delivery is one that could cause injury in the future. His small frame is also an issue that could cause breakdown going into his career. At the same age as Kazmir, Linceum has only totaled 25 wins. Granted, it has only been two seasons, and his win rate seems to be a solid fixture, I don't think Lincecum can put that solid run together, especially with the stagnant offense in San Fransisco. The one and only Bill James projects 17 wins next season.

Andy Pettite- At 36, Pettite is still 85 wins away from the 300 club. Is it doable? You betcha! If his arm can last until the age of 42, and he averages 14 wins from now until then, he would be at 84 wins. The only question is if. I think that 14 wins is a safe total. He hasn't been below 14 in a full season since 2002.







 

Movin' On a Bit: Don't worry we are still here

Category: By Dex
-Dexter Sports
12:41 PM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

Hey Y'all. I know I haven't updated in a while, and there is a good reason for it. Throughout the years, if you haven't noticed, my true passion in baseball is the Detroit Tigers. Of Course, I still love the prospects, story lines and other things that happen during the MLB Season. So, from now on, Dexter-Sports will not be updated as much as before. I will be spending a lot of time at my new Tigers Blog, Motor City Bengals. So come on over and check it out, I think you will enjoy it.

For now, I will still post special essays, Fantasy Sports news and other analysis pieces on this blog. I hope you enjoy the upcoming Tigers news on Motor City Bengals, and don't worry, I will still be analyzing the complete game I love right here.
 

AL Central Pitching Analysis

By Dex
-Dexter Sports
2:46 PM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

A long time ago, when the 2008 season was young, I made a bold and completely dumb prediction. For some reason, I felt the Royals would have the best pitching in the AL Central. I was convinced that a staff that included Zack Grienke, Brian Bannister and Gil Meche would be enough, because of the strong bullpen arms. on the staff. In the original post though, I stated that they would at least be better than Cleveland and Detroit and I wasn't far off. Let's break down the AL Central pitching numbers for 2008.

Pitching Total Stats:

IP Relief IP ER HR TBB SO CG ShO SV/Opp.

Minnesota 1459 485 675 183 406 995 5 10 42/65

Chicago 1457.2 463 658 156 489 1147 4 10 34/52

Cleveland 1437 399 711 170 444 986 10 13 31/51

Kansas City 1445.2 439 720 159 515 1085 2 8 44/60

Detroit 1445 440 786 172 644 991 1 2 34/62



So what information do we gather from this compilaton? Here are a few things to note on successes and failures.

1.) Walks and Close Games slay the Tigers-
The Tigers were 16-25 in one run games, and that makes sense. They had the most walked batters in the Central, and the third most in the American League. They only converted 58% of their save opportunities. It only makes sense for a complete rebuild of this bullpen after their failures in 2008. A lot of it had to do with the injury of Todd Jones (18/21). Fernando Rodney did a decent job of holding runners in his absence, closing 13 of nineteen games successfully. But the major issue seemed to be holding leads. Kyle Farnsworth did seem to be a solid acquisition, leading the team in holds with 14 after his trade. To their bullpen's credit, they did inherit a lot of runners, because the staff couldn't stay healthy, or go long into ballgames. The Tigers only had two shutouts and one complete game this season. This makes it clear that a closer will be need, along with other help in the bullpen. Tom Knapp will have to emphasize cutting out the walks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an innings eater added to the staff. Nate Robertson, who was expected to put up pretty good numbers, gave up the most earned runs in the league. Justin Verlander, who was expected to put up his first twenty win season, led the leagues in losses with 17. Dontrelle Willis, who once had 5 shutouts in a season, had a hard time even shutting down one hitter at a time. He had more walks than innings pitched.

What happened in Cleveland?- Cleveland's pitching performance last year, is one of the strangest that I have ever witnessed. The staff struggled mightly in the first half of the season(41-53). The Indians couldn't find a consistent closer. C.C. Sabathia started off slowly. Joe Borowski was finally let go, and then the combination of Rafael Betancourt and Masa Kobayashi failed to close out close ball games consistently (10/17 combined). But Jenson Lewis stepped up in the second half, closing out 13/14 ballgames. Rafael Perez did a good job getting the ball to the closer, by holding 25 ballgames (4th in baseball). Beyond the performances of Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, the pitching staff was rather suspect. Paul Byrd gave up 23 dingers in 22 starts with Cleveland. Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sower were also a bit upsetting in 2008. Many wonder if Jenson Lewis will maintain the job in 2009. I think he should get a shot. But his lack of experience will be hard to allow that. Expect a free agent veteran to come in.

Kansas City isn't that far off- It is clear now that the Royals have a formidable rotation. Sure, they didn't lead the Central like I expected, but they put together a pretty good show. Zack Grienke eclipsed ten wins and two-hundred wins for the first time in his young career. he struck out one hundred and eighty three hitters. Teammate Gil Meche also had 183 strikeouts and added 14 wins. He he also started 34 games and led the league in games started for the second straight season. Third Starter Brian Bannister struggled though, giving up the most amount of runs in the league. He went 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA. Horacio Ramirez was a slight surprise in the pen, going 24 innings and only giving up 7 earned runs. Ramon Ramirez was a big part of the Royal pitching staff, getting in 71 games and holding 21 of them. He struck out nearly a hitter an inning while holding his walks down. Joakim Soria was lights out, shuting down 42/45 save opportunities. He struck out more than one an appearance. He is molding into a top tier closer.


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End of an Era- Thanks Mr. Knuckle Curve

By Dex
-Dexter Sports
5:53 PM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

As much as I hate to say it, Mike Mussina has decided to hang up the cleats for good, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.com.

Usually player retirements don't get to me at all. They are part of the baseball process. But in some sorts, this one is more personal.

One of the first pitchers I ever laid my eyes on was the Moose, when he was with Baltimore in the early to mid 90's. I fell in love with his work ethic and approach on the mound. I fell in love with the knuckle-curve. Mussina has never won the big game, and in his eighteen seasons, he only tallied twenty wins once (this season). But since 1992, he has been a staple, winning at least 11 games per season since that point. The five time all-star can now ride into the sunset. And though he didnt tally 300 wins, or win that world series title, He will be considered for the hall of fame.

Other Notes:

-Kansas City, get out the milk! The Royals acquired speedy outfielder Coco Crisp for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Despite all the talk of not liking this deal, I think it improves the RBI chances of Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen dramatically. Crisp's on base perctange was .344 in 118 games last season. Crisp also adds a dimension of speed that the Royals haven't been able to use in a long time (Joey Gathright excluded). I commend Dayton Moore for selling high on a reliever. If Mike Aviles wasn't a fluke, and their pitching holds up, they could be contenders.

-Chuck Hernandez was hired to be the Indians bullpen coach next season. The Tigers fired him after filling as the pitching coach since 2006. This continues the swirl of AL Central coaches changing uniforms. The Tigers hired former twin pitching instructor Tom Knapp this off-season.

-C.C. Sabathia could recieve an offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Deal would be six years and fall somewhere between 100 and 150 million dollars. Sabathia would like to stay in southern California and the National League. Go get 'em Dodgers!
 

Off-Season Outlook: Oakland Athletics

Category: , By Dex
-Dexter Sports
5:00 PM
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It started off with a bang when Billy Beane sent top prospect Carlos Gonzalez, reliever/closer Houston Street and pitcher Greg Smith to the Rockies for slugger Matt Holliday. It was a deal that shocked most. Yet, it was one that was brilliant. The A's picked up someone with true power potential, without giving up top prospect pitchers Brett Anderson or Trever Cahill. Street will be replaced by Mr. shut down, Brad Ziegler. Undoubtedly though, relief help will be needed. Alan Embree and Keith Fulke will both be free agents. The loss of Mike Sweeney, Frank Thomas, Emil Brown and Carlos Gonzalez, also leaves gaping holes in the outfield and at the designated hitter position. But the biggest hole is at the shortstop position. And if it isnt addressed, the A's could have a hard time producing runs, even with Matt Holliday. The pitching staff is close to competing, much like the cross-bay San Fransisco (We will take a look at their outlook tomorrow). This offseason reminds me a lot of the 2005 winter months, when Beane together something special for the 2006 season, which led to an ALCS for the first time in the Beane Era. Let's take a closer look.

Starting Pitching-

Projected Starting Rotation:

1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Dana Eveland
3. Sean Gallagher
4. Josh Outman
5. Gio Gonzalez/Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill/Insert Free Agent vet here.

Minus Joe Blanton, Greg Smith, and Rich Harden for the 2009 season, but this staff still looks tough. Though Sean Gallagher didn't have spectacular numbers in 2008, but one thing to note is his adjustment since coming to Oakland. At home last season, he was 5-0 with a 3.41 ERA and a .224 batting average against. There isn't a doubt that veteran leadership is needed in Oakland. How about someone like Kenny Rogers? I wouldn't be surprised to see him travel to a warmer climate in 2009. Oakland seems like a good fit.

Relief Pitching-

CL: Brad Ziegler
SR: Josh Outman
LH: Joey Devine
SR: Andrew Brown
SR: Santiago Casilla

The bullpen returns some key starters for 2009, but losing Houston Street could hurt this squad. It seems that one of the top needs for this squad is a set-up type reliever. Is Trevor Hoffman a possibily? I don't see that really happening, but someone under the radar. How about a guy like Will Ohman? He is a lefty, but could fill Alan Embree's spot in the bullpen. I wouldn't be surprised though if Billy Beane didnt sign anybody. Most of his relievers are found from the system and have instant success.

Starting Lineup-

Projected Starting Lineup:

1. Rafael Furcal, SS
2.Ryan Sweeney, CF
3. Jason Giambi, DH
4. Matt Holliday, RF
5.Eric Chavez, 3B
6.Matt Murton, LF
7.Daric Barton, 1B
8.Mark Ellis, 2B
9. Kurt Suzuki, C
---------------------
Obviously, I'm making some assumptions here, but I really think these two free agents are heading to the bay. It is certain, that if Furcal isn't signed, the A's will be looking for a true leadoff hitter. Ryan Sweeney and Mark Ellis could fill in, but are not top notch lead off men. The A's will look for a cheap spark as well on offense. Jason Giambi has been the name that has spread. Murton only played in 9 games for the Athletic's, but I anticipate him making the squad out of spring training. Especially if noone is brought in out of the free agent market. Expect Beane to go after a cheap outfielder. Juan Rivera sounds like a good git.

---------------------
'08 Review and 09 Keys to Success.

Though 2008 was declared a "rebuilding year," The Athletics started hot, going 51-44 before the All-Star Break. After the break was a different story. The A's struggled to get wins, going 27-41 to round out the season. One of the big weaknessess of the '08 squad, believe it or not, was their lack of ability to get on base. The A's put together a the lowest season average for any team in Major League Baseball (.242) and had one of the lowest on base percentages (.318) in baseball.

The strong point was pitching, which held hitters to an astonsihing .253 average. A lot of the success can be credited to an unexpected bullpen. Add in the mix that many starters had early success, though unexpected (see Dana Eveland). The defense didnt really help pitchers either. Ninety-Eight errors on the season is right in the middle of the pack.

Keys to Success in '09-

  • Use McAffee Coliseum as an advantage. In 2008, the Athletics hit only .243 at home. Adding Matt Holliday should increase most offensive numbers, but the offense needs to start using the gaps. The Coliseum is without a question, a pitchers park. So putting up runs at home will be a key factor. More power to left will also be key. left handed Athletics only hit .236 at McAffee last season.
  • The Eric Chavez Factor- Can he come back healthy after season ending shoulder surgery? If so, will he put up the numbers needed. Chavez hasn't hit above .250 since 2004. Beyond the homer, Chavez's power numbers are almost non-existent. I believe that shutting him down early could have a positive effect in 2009. The key is staying healthy and getting a hot start. We will see what happens.
  • Address the top three needs- How do they do this? The first priority has to be the Shortstop position. Bobby Crosby had an oblivial .296 OBP last season in 1465 games. That offensive production won't get it done. Of course, I believe that Rafael Furcal is the perfect fit, but there are others available. Orlando Cabrera has been known to like the one year deal and he could be useful until Adrian Cardenas is ready for everyday play. David Eckstein could aslo spark interest, because of his .354 OBP last season, to tally a career .351 OBP. Secondly, a veteran outfielder or first baseman needs to be brought in. Someone that can spark interest and power. Up top I mentioned Juan Rivera, who could be a Free Agent Bargain. Or the reuniting of Jason Giambi could also help this squad. Another name that I like under the Radar is Sean Casey. He gets on base, is an excellent fielder, and a great clubhouse leader. Thirdly, they need to bring in a solid set-up type reliever. Earlier I mentioned Will Ohman, becuase he is cheap and a lefty. Others could include Chad Cordero (if cheap), Derrick Turnbow, and Kyle Farnsworth.
 

Free Agency Begins

Category: By Dex
-Dexter Sports
8:06 AM
Dexter-Sports Inbox

Beyond snowfall and coffee, this is what I love about winter the most. The trades are already taking place. We see the Yankees add a Nick Swisher, hoping he will improve upon a horrid '08 campaign, that saw him hit .219 in more than 500 at bats. The Cubs have snipped veteran Kerry Wood from returning home. He is seeking a four year deal? The reliever must have forgotten his injury history. And I am sure that some team will forget as well.

Alot of the talk this last week in sports radio has been about the economy, and it's affect on sports. The NFL has slashed Super Bowl tickets. The New Jersey Nets have a wonderful promotion for the jobless in New Jersey. It will be interesting to see if we see this trend fall in free agency. We saw this trend start a bit last year. Owners are starting to take less risk, and go with home-grown talent (See Tampa Bay Rays). Even the Tigers, who had the second highest payroll in baseball, is expected to slice payroll, and start developing talent from within. I won't be surprised if a guy like Ben Sheets wont get the money he demands, or at least the amount of years. Owners (beyond The Boss) are not willing to take those chances. It's why Sabathia will end up a Yankee. Nobody will be able to match the price tag they put up.

In Other News:
  • According to the Baltimore Sun, every official of the team has denied the rumors that they are interested in signing Manny Ramirez. Makes complete sense to me. Notice how they haven't denied going after Tex at first. I really think he is their goal, beyond A.J. Burnett.